Gold holds near $4,054 as key US inflation data lands
In short
- An ounce of gold is about $4,054, almost unchanged on the day, and silver is $53.44.
- Today at 8:30am ET the US September PCE inflation reading and third-quarter GDP are released.
- BBH expects headline PCE of 3.6% year on year. The Fed held rates yesterday by 10 votes to 2, with two members wanting a hike.
Gold is waiting for the inflation data that may decide where the Fed goes in December. Yesterday we wrote about the Fed decision. Today brings the first big test after it.
What happened
After the Fed decision gold dropped to about $4,035, then recovered. Spot gold is near $4,056 and December futures settled at $4,051.60, down 0.6% (Guardian Gold). Silver is trading around $53.7, down about 1%, and the gold-to-silver ratio is 75.0. The Silver Institute expects industrial silver demand to fall 3% to 639.6 million ounces this year.
Analysts are cutting their 2026 gold forecasts because of high bond yields and a strong dollar. Sucden has a bearish target of $3,900 by year-end.
The data is released today at 8:30am in New York (8:30am ET). According to a forecast cited by BBH, headline PCE for September is +0.5% month on month and 3.6% year on year (3.4% in August), while core is +0.3% and 3.1%. US third-quarter GDP is expected at 3.2% annualised after 2.2% in the second quarter. Guardian Gold calls PCE the key test for a possible December hike. Higher inflation supports the case for a hike, which usually weighs on gold, while lower inflation does the opposite.
What it means for you
The maths: the cheapest 1 oz gold bar at US dealers is $4,087.52 (Gainesville Coins). Every 1% move in gold is about $40.88 on that bar. If gold fell to $3,900, Sucden’s target, that would be a drop of about 3.8%, or roughly $155 on the bar. An ounce of silver is $53.44. Compare all prices on the US gold prices and silver prices pages.
Bottom line
Gold is about $4,054 an ounce and has barely moved since the Fed. Today’s PCE and GDP releases matter because higher inflation than expected would strengthen the case for a December hike. Sucden points to a bearish target of $3,900 by year-end.
Sources: Guardian Gold · Business Standard · Mitrade (BBH)
Gold prices at US dealers live →
For information only. This is not investment advice.
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