Gold falls 1% as US jobs beat forecasts by 100,000
In short
- The US added 165,000 jobs in October against about 65,000 expected; unemployment fell to 4.1%.
- The dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield rose, and gold fell about 1% on the day.
- Markets now price roughly a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.
A much stronger US jobs report pushed gold lower on Friday: fewer rate cuts means a firmer dollar and a higher cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
What happened
The October jobs report came out on Friday at 15:30 Sofia time (8:30 a.m. in New York). The economy added 165,000 jobs, well above the roughly 65,000 analysts expected. Unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Markets reacted quickly. According to the Rio Times, the dollar index rose 0.72% to 102.28 and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.87%. Gold closed at $4,045 an ounce, down 1.02% on the day. HawkValue’s live feed showed gold at $4,080 an ounce at 06:41 Sofia time on Saturday, down 0.8% over 24 hours. Silver was near $52, down 0.5%.
The wider picture matters. Gold gained 4.4% in the five sessions to Thursday, but it is still down 3.6% over the last 20 sessions, and silver is down 13.2%. Both metals hit 12-month lows on 30 October, near $3,875 for gold and $49.07 for silver. The January highs were $5,513 and $114.59. The VIX fell 9% to 25.64 as US shares recovered, which cut demand for safe havens.
After the report, CoinDesk put the odds of a December Fed hike at about 77%. The next big marker is US consumer price data on Tuesday.
What it means for you
If you hold gold, a day like Friday is ordinary noise rather than a signal. But it helps to know what is weighing on the price: rates and the dollar, not interest in the metal itself.
The maths: 1% of $1,000 in gold is $10. A 10g bar is worth about $1,312 at spot ($4,080 an ounce), so 1% is $13.12. Dealers charge more than spot: Summit Metals lists a 10g bar at $1,344.83. That gap is dealer premium, not market movement.
Compare dealers on the US gold prices page, or check the long view on the gold price chart.
Bottom line
Strong jobs data lifted the dollar and yields and tightened the squeeze on gold. The metal remains far below its January high. US inflation data on Tuesday is the next test for rate expectations.
Sources: Rio Times · CoinDesk · BLS
Gold prices at US dealers live →
For information only. This is not investment advice.
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