Gold fell 3.7% in a week; analysts lean bearish, retail bullish
In short
- According to Kitco’s weekly survey, 10 of 16 Wall Street analysts (63%) expect gold to fall next week, 1 (6%) expects a rise and 5 are neutral, while of 184 reader votes 53% lean bullish and 30% bearish. The reader poll is an online vote, not a representative survey.
- Gold fell 3.74% on the week on Kitco’s figures, from $3,994.95 to $3,875.05, within a range of $3,870.25 to $4,082.50. On our Monday-to-Friday closes it is 3.8% lower in sterling on the week.
- A 1 oz gold bar is from £2,962.12 at Chards (1.8% over spot); Tavex UK buys back at £2,835.55, 2.6% below spot.
Analysts and gold buyers are looking in different directions: in Kitco’s weekly survey most professionals expect more weakness, while most readers vote for a rise. This morning we covered oil and the Fed, and yesterday October in metals; here is how sentiment looks and what bars cost today.
What happened
Kitco asks Wall Street analysts and readers every week. This time, of 16 professionals 1 (6%) is bullish, 10 (63%) are bearish and 5 (31%) expect sideways trading. Of 184 votes in the online reader poll, 98 (53%) are bullish, 56 (30%) bearish and 30 (16%) neutral.
The week: Kitco reports a Sunday open of $3,994.95, a Wednesday high of $4,082.50 and a Friday low of $3,870.25, with the last price at $3,875.05, down 3.74% on the week. On our data gold closed Friday at £2,910 an ounce against £3,026 on Monday (−3.8%), and silver at £36.78 against £40.54 (−9.3%).
What the analysts say (Kitco): Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex said “gold’s shine has dulled” – it was near $4,700 in late August – and that it could fall to $3,750–$3,850 if it pushes to new yearly lows. Jesse Colombo sees $3,900–$4,000 as key support, with $3,500 next if it breaks. Daniel Pavilonis allows for gold around $3,000 and silver in the high $30s, possibly by the first quarter of 2027. Adam Button of investingLive is “lower”, citing the US midterms and possible escalation with Iran, while Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International is “unchanged”, with oil and the midterms pulling in different directions. These are the views of those quoted, not our forecasts.
What it means for you
The maths: spot gold is about £2,910 an ounce. A 1 oz bar costs £2,962.12 at Chards, £52.25 (1.8%) over spot, and Tavex UK sells one at £2,967.74 and buys at £2,835.55, a gap of £132.19 (4.5%). A full Sovereign contains 7.32 g of gold, worth about £684.82 at spot; Chards sells one from £705.11 (£20.29, 3.0% over) and Tavex UK buys at £674.36. For 100 g the spot value is £9,355.44: Chards sells from £9,490.95 (1.4% over) and Baird & Co buys at £8,990.98. Dealer prices are as of about 4:19 a.m. UK time.
Live prices: gold prices, the gold calculator and the gold price chart.
Bottom line
Kitco’s survey shows a split: 63% of analysts expect lower gold, while 53% of readers expect higher. Gold is down 3.74% on the week (Kitco), and a 1 oz bar is from £2,962.12 at Chards, 1.8% over spot.
Sources: Kitco – weekly survey · Kitco – PM report
Gold prices at UK dealers live →
For information only. This is not investment advice.
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