US jobs at 15:30 Sofia: economists expect 59,000 new jobs
In short
- The US October jobs report is due at 15:30 Sofia time: economists expect about 59,000 new jobs (September: 29,000) and unemployment steady at 4.2%.
- Forecasts range from 50,000 (Barclays) to 95,000 (RSM). The Fed (3.75–4.00%) meets on 8–9 December and futures put a hike at about 80%.
- The report lands one hour before the US open, after the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the SOX chip index 12.2% on Thursday.
The US October jobs report is out at 15:30 Sofia time, and economists expect about 59,000 new jobs – double September’s 29,000 – with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. This is a preview of expectations, not results: the figures will be known only when they are released.
What to expect
According to Kiplinger the consensus is about 59,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.2%. Deutsche Bank expects 55,000, Barclays 50,000 (with unemployment dipping to 4.1%), Wells Fargo 65,000 and RSM 95,000. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month after 0.1% in September.
The September report was weak: 29,000 against a forecast of 93,000, and July and August were revised down by 60,000 combined. Recent indicators are better: ADP reported 86,000 new private-sector jobs, above expectations; JOLTS job openings were 7.523 million and jobless claims are near 200,000 (TradingKey).
The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October in a 10–2 vote – Hammack and Cook wanted a hike – and Chair Warsh called labor-market conditions “quite positive” (Fox Business). The next meeting is 8–9 December. Futures put a 25-point hike at about 80% (CME FedWatch showed 82.6% on 28 October); Barclays writes that a December hike stays possible if the data hold.
Market backdrop: at 06:40 Sofia time gold was £3,008 an ounce and Bitcoin about £56,200. Wall Street opens at 16:30 Sofia time, after Thursday’s drop – the S&P 500 at 7,353.73 (−4.36%) and the Nasdaq-100 at 26,630 (−6.4%). Before the open Moderna, Humana, Charter Communications and Franklin Resources are expected to report (dates are estimates, per TheStreet).
What it means for you
The maths: forecasts run from 50,000 to 95,000 – a gap of 45,000 jobs, more than the whole of September’s 29,000. If you hold £10,000 in something that follows the Fed’s rate, a 0.25-point rise is about £25 a year. And £10,000 in an S&P 500 fund lost £436 on Thursday at −4.36%.
As a rule, data above expectations tends to strengthen bets on a rate rise and weak data to weaken them; TradingKey’s scenario says the same (above 100,000 with wages at +0.3% or more points to a hike; below 30,000 raises doubts). That is their analysis, not our forecast. Live prices: {{/uk/stock-market-uk/|stocks}}, {{/uk/gold-prices-uk/|gold}} and {{/uk/crypto-prices-uk/|crypto}}.
Bottom line
At 15:30 Sofia time comes the data markets have been waiting for after Thursday’s sharp fall on Wall Street. Expectations are about 59,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment; the real numbers are known only once released.
Sources: Kiplinger · TradingKey · Fox Business · TheStreet · HawkValue data at 06:40.
Gold, silver and Bitcoin charts live →
For information only. This is not investment advice.
More news
UK GDP due Thursday: economists expect 0.7% growth in Q3
UK Q3 GDP is due Thursday: economists expect 0.7% growth. Plus Bailey, Lane and Pill speeches and the euro-zone calendar.
US CPI on Tuesday: markets see 77% odds of a Fed hike
US CPI is due Tuesday: +0.3% expected, with about 77% odds of a December Fed hike. What to expect, and the maths.
Bank of England hikes to 4%, sees inflation near 5%
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on an 8–1 vote and expects inflation near 5%. Sterling, euro and European stocks at 06:40.
