US CPI on Tuesday: markets see 77% odds of a Fed hike
In short
- US consumer price data for October is due on Tuesday, 10 November.
- Analysts expect +0.3% on the month for headline prices and +0.2% for core.
- After Friday’s jobs report, markets price about a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.
Next week, markets will test whether US prices are cooling, and whether the expected December Fed hike is justified. This is a preview, not a result: none of these figures is out yet.
What happened
CMC Markets’ weekly calendar has US consumer prices (CPI) for October on Tuesday. The forecasts are +0.3% month on month for headline CPI and +0.2% for core, which excludes food and energy. September came in at +0.6% and +0.3%. There will be no year-on-year comparison, because the October 2025 report was never published owing to the government shutdown.
Germany’s final October inflation follows on Wednesday, with 2.8% a year expected. On Thursday come UK third-quarter GDP and Cisco’s results: analysts expect earnings of $1.32 a share on revenue of about $18.1bn, and options imply a move of about 9% either way. US producer prices (PPI) are due on Friday, 13 November.
The backdrop is Friday’s jobs report: 165,000 new jobs against about 65,000 expected. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.87%, according to the Rio Times, and CoinDesk reports odds of about 77% for a December Fed hike. At 06:41 on Saturday HawkValue’s data showed the S&P 500 at 7,377 and gold at £3,048 an ounce.
What it means for you
US rates affect the dollar, gold, shares and crypto at once. If you hold any of them, Tuesday is a day when prices can move quickly.
The maths: a monthly rise of 0.3% repeated for 12 months is about 3.7% a year. A 0.2% month gives about 2.4%, and September’s 0.6% would be about 7.4%. On £1,000 of spending, that is about £37 more over a year at 0.3% a month and about £74 at 0.6%. The gap between +0.3% and +0.6% matters far more than it looks.
Track the market reaction on the UK stock market and UK gold prices pages.
Bottom line
Tuesday’s US CPI is forecast at +0.3% (headline) and +0.2% (core). A surprise either way could shift Fed expectations quickly. We will report the result in the next morning’s edition.
Sources: CMC Markets · CoinDesk · Rio Times
Gold, silver and Bitcoin charts live →
For information only. This is not investment advice.
More news
UK GDP due Thursday: economists expect 0.7% growth in Q3
UK Q3 GDP is due Thursday: economists expect 0.7% growth. Plus Bailey, Lane and Pill speeches and the euro-zone calendar.
US jobs at 15:30 Sofia: economists expect 59,000 new jobs
The US jobs report is due at 15:30 Sofia time: economists expect about 59,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment. A preview of expectations, not results.
Bank of England hikes to 4%, sees inflation near 5%
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on an 8–1 vote and expects inflation near 5%. Sterling, euro and European stocks at 06:40.
