US midterms and AMD results: what markets are watching today
In short
- The US midterm elections are today: Democrats are favoured to win the House, while estimates for the Senate differ.
- At 3:00 p.m. UK time the JOLTS job openings data for September are due. Friday brings the jobs report.
- AMD and Super Micro report after the close. On Monday the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.65% in October.
Wall Street is waiting for three things today: the elections, job openings data at 3:00 p.m. UK time, and results from AMD and Super Micro this evening. This is a preview of expectations, not of results.
What happened
On Monday the S&P 500 closed at 7,541.40 (−0.51%), the Nasdaq Composite at 25,164 (−1.07%) and the Dow Jones at 51,984 (+0.41%). In October the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.65%, as tech stocks lost about $2 trillion in market value amid doubts about AI spending. Apple and Palantir reported after Monday’s close: Apple’s revenue was $114.5bn (+12%) and Palantir’s $2.313bn (+96%).
Today the calendar is full. The US midterm elections take place. Democrats are favoured to win the House, while estimates for the Senate differ: one model gives them an 82% chance, other previews call it closer. If the president’s party does better than expected, markets could react strongly.
At 3:00 p.m. UK time (10:00 a.m. in New York) the JOLTS data for September are due. ADP and the ISM services survey follow on Wednesday, and the jobs report on Friday, where economists expect around 62,000–65,000 new jobs against 29,000 in September. The Fed held at 3.75–4% on 28 October with two officials wanting a hike, so stronger data could add to December hike expectations.
After the close AMD and Super Micro Computer report. Pfizer, Shopify and Booking Holdings also report today, with Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin on Wednesday. AMD shares closed Monday at $466.84 (−7.5% on the day, +79.8% over a year, HawkValue data).
What it means for you
The maths: on £10,000 in an S&P 500 tracker, Monday’s 0.51% fall is about £51. October’s 6.65% fall in the Nasdaq 100 would be about £665 on the same amount. Currency moves come on top: HawkValue’s rate this morning was £1 = $1.34 (£0.8358 per euro, $1.1216 per euro).
See also: live stock prices. Earlier: AMD falls 10.9% before Tuesday’s results.
Bottom line
Today brings an election, jobs data and two chip results after October, when the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.65%. The results will be known by tomorrow; we will write them up in the morning.
Sources: Goodreturns · crypto.news · TradingKey · Schwab · HawkValue data at 8:06 a.m.
For information only. This is not investment advice.
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